Chart: Improving Weather, US Dollar Strength Undermines Wheat

Improving weather for global crops and US dollar strength have been an unkind combination for wheat prices. 

As shown on the December Chicago futures chart below, wheat has suffered a particularly sharp downturn so far this week, trading below US$5.30/bu as of late afternoon Thursday. That is down almost 50 cents from earlier this month, and the lowest since late August. 

Already at a one-year high against other major world currencies, the American dollar was trading higher again today. The greenback has gotten most of its upward momentum from Donald Trump’s election win earlier this month, with Trump’s tariff plans widely expected to result in another flaring of inflation. Gains in the greenback on Wednesday, meanwhile, came on the heels of a Labor Department report showing the US inflation rate ticking higher in October compared to September. 

Rising inflation can also mean rising interest rates, which in turn drives up investor demand for the American currency, resulting in a stronger dollar. And of course, a stronger American dollar makes prices for US wheat more expensive for foreign export buyers who happen to be holding other currencies. 

On the weather front, recent rainfall across the southern Plains has allowed the condition of the US winter wheat crop to rebound. In fact, over the past two weeks, the No. 1 winter wheat production state of Kansas has received anywhere from 2 to 8 inches of rain. Much-needed moisture has also fallen into the Midwest and as far north as North Dakota. 

Tuesday’s USDA crop progress report pegged the US winter wheat crop at 44% good to excellent as of Sunday. That was up 3 points from a week earlier and 6 points above the initial condition rating on Oct. 28 of 38%, which was the second lowest in records dating back to 1986. 

US forecasts have another rain system due in for the southern plains Monday and Tuesday. 

Abundant rainfall in October and early November has also benefited the Argentina wheat crop, with the Rosario Grain Exchange projecting Argentina will export 13.3 million tonnes of wheat in 2024-25, potentially the second highest ever. Although still not ideal, conditions for the parched Russia winter wheat crop have also improved with recent rain. 

StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman has also said some of the war premium also appears to be leaking out of the wheat market on ideas Russia-Ukraine conflict could draw to a close. Incoming US president Trump said during the campaign he would bring the war to an end.