The spread in prices is often measured against what the commercial costs of storage and interest are for the actual crop in a facility.
“That varies somewhat for each crop,” says Blue. “For canola, the commercial carrying charge is about $5.50 per tonne per month. The market seldom pays that much of a carrying charge, but some market analysts follow the ratio or percentage that the market is paying of that full carrying charge.”
“For example, on January 17, 2019, the futures spread between March and May canola was $8.50 per tonne. Compared to full commercial carrying charges of $5.50 per tonne per month - or $11 per tonne for that two-month period - it calculates to a price spread of just less than 80 per cent of full carry. Analysts watch for a change in that carrying charge percentage as a signal of change in market demand.”
Blue says that for producers to take advantage of the spread on price, by capturing that carrying charge in the futures or cash market, they have to lock it in. “That can be done with a deferred delivery contract, a futures sell position or by using an option strategy.”
“Again, the carrying charge does not necessarily mean that prices are expected to rise in the future. However, carrying charges can provide an opportunity to have the market pay a producer to store crop while waiting for the delivery period. That payment advantage can be greater than interest saved or earned by having the sale proceeds on hand earlier.”
As for using a crop payment advance while waiting for that delivery period, Blue says that is a good marketing strategy to consider. “That advance, of which the first $100,000 is interest free, is available from a few sources, including the Canadian Canola Growers Association and the Alberta Wheat Commission.”
Source : Alberta agriculture and forestry