Canadian Wheat (Excl Durum) Ending Stocks Seen at Record Low

Canadian ending stocks of wheat (excl durum) are projected to drop to their lowest on record, amid heavier than expected domestic use. 

Updated monthly supply-demand estimates released by Agriculture Canada on Tuesday forecast 2023-24 wheat ending stocks at 2.5 million tonnes, down 600,000 from the April estimate. If accurate, it would easily take out of the previous ending stocks low of 3.1 million in 2022-23. 

This month’s fall in ending stocks is entirely due to a larger feed, waste and dockage estimate, which jumped to 4.5 million tonnes from 3.635 million in April. Ag Canada attributed the increase to Statistics Canada’s May 7 grain stocks report that showed total Canadian stockpiles of wheat (excl durum) as of March 31 at 10.105 million tonnes, down nearly 14% from the same date a year earlier. 

Some of the increase in total domestic use was offset by a 100,000-tonne reduction from April in food and industrial use to 3.2 million tonnes, but the bottom line was still a sharp reduction in the bottom-line ending stocks estimate. 

Amid a smaller carry-in from the old-crop year, Ag Canada also cut its 2024-25 wheat (excl durum) ending stocks estimate from last month, dropping it to 3 million tonnes from 3.65 million. 

Other changes in the new-crop supply-demand estimates for wheat (excl durum) included an upward revision in feed, waste and dockage to 4.41 million tonnes from 4.26 million in April, as well as a 150,000-tonne increase in the export estimate to 20.25 million. On the other hand, Ag Canada lowered food and industrial use by 100,000 tonnes from April to 3.2 million.  

Ag Canada made no changes to its 2023-24 and 2024-25 durum ending stocks estimates, holding them steady from last month at 450,000 and 750,000 tonnes, respectively. 

The wheat (excl durum) price outlooks were unchanged from last month as well, coming in at $325 for 2023-24 and $310 for 2024-25.