Food prices are one of the most significant sources of stress for Canadians today. A cross-country, multi-university research team led by Dalhousie is empowering consumers with data-driven food price predictions.
Canada’s Food Price Report (CFPR) is an annual collaboration between research partners Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of Saskatchewan, and the University of British Columbia. The research team uses historical data sources, machine-learning algorithms, and predictive analytics tools to forecast Canadian food prices.
The 2025 CFPR forecasts that overall food prices will increase by 3% to 5%. The average family of four is expected to spend $16,833.67 on food in 2025, an increase of up to $801.56 from last year. The current rate is 2.8%. Food prices increased at a slower than predicted rate in 2024.
Although there was a downward trend in inflation, Canadians are still pinching pennies. In April, Statistics Canada reported that in 2023, 22.9% of people in the ten provinces lived in a food-insecure household. That means 8.7 million people, including 2.1 million children, struggle to afford the food they need. The highest rates of food insecurity were found in Nova Scotia (28.9%), followed by Prince Edward Island (28.6%). Those living in food-insecure households are more likely to experience critical health conditions, including infectious disease, poor oral health, chronic illness, and heart disease.
In March, the Food Banks Canada Hunger Count reported a new record high for food bank visits (two million), which is a 90% increase compared to 2019. A recent survey by the Agri-Food Analytics Lab shows younger individuals are facing significant economic pressure, with approximately 40% of Gen Z (those born between 1997 and 2012) using savings or borrowing money to buy food (compared to 20% of Boomers).
Food prices are influenced by a variety of global factors, including climate change, geopolitical conflicts, input and energy costs, inflation, currencies and trade, food distribution, food processing, policies and regulations, consumer awareness, and consumer debt.
“Some impacts of adverse weather are starting to be reflected in food prices, such as more expensive meat, due to lengthy droughts in Canada’s beef-producing regions,” says Dr. Stuart Smyth, campus lead, University of Saskatchewan. “This has resulted in fewer cattle presently producing meat.”
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