Farm Economy to Stabilize in 2026, Ag Economists Predict

By Ryan Hanrahan

AgWeb’s Tyne Morgan reported that “as 2026 ushers in a fresh start, agricultural economists say the U.S. farm economy has stopped sliding, but it’s far from fully healed. The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows month-to-month sentiment is improving, but deep structural strain remains — especially in row crops. Meanwhile, livestock markets continue to provide strength. Crop producers face another year of tight margins driven by high input costs, weak prices and unresolved trade and policy uncertainty.”

“‘There’s cautious optimism,’ the economists say,” according to Morgan’s reporting, “‘but very little belief that 2026 will bring a meaningful rebound without cost relief or stronger demand.'”

“Economists see the ag economy holding its ground — but not gaining strength,” Morgan reported. “54% say the ag economy is somewhat better than one month ago. Compared with a year ago: 42% say conditions are worse (and) 33% say they are better. Looking ahead 12 months: 46% expect conditions unchanged, 38% expect improvement (and) 15% expect conditions to worsen.”

“‘Momentum has improved since mid-2025,’ (Seth) Meyer (director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri) notes, ‘but tight margins have been with us for a long time. Turning that around requires demand growth, not just price stabilization,'” Morgan reported.

“Grant Gardner, assistant Extension professor at the University of Kentucky, tells AgriTalk’s Chip Flory: “I think as we move into kind of this next marketing year, you’re looking at what looks like a breakeven and not a loss, but breakeven still doesn’t look great after three years of breakeven or losses,'” Morgan reported. “He says even with the $11 billion in Farmer Bridge Program payments, it won’t drastically change the outlook for the farm economy.”