Beef Producers and Crop Farmers Eye Policy Changes and Market Prices

By Chad Hart

When Iowa State University extension economist Chad Hart spoke at the 2025 Feedlot Forum, USDA acreage numbers were the big story; specifically, the main question was about USDA’s estimate of the shift from soybeans to corn. Now as we approach planting, the main acreage question is whether farmers will shift even more from soybeans to corn than USDA anticipated. Hart said USDA’s current estimates are for 94 million acres of corn and 84 million acres of soybeans, a roughly 3-million acre shift moving from soybeans to corn. 

“Those planting soybeans this year are doing so to maintain their agronomic rotation and are hoping that if enough acres shift to corn, soybean prices could improve in the fall ,” he said. “For livestock, and especially cattle, producers, the boost in corn area should translate into a continuation of lower feed costs. So, the challenge for crop producers is to the benefit of livestock producers.”

The March 31 Prospective Plantings report provides the first look at what farmers say they’ll plant this year, compared with previous estimates that are based on USDA models. Hart cautioned that the actual numbers will change over the spring, as farmers end up not exactly planting what they intended due to weather, seed availability, and mechanical issues.

‘The more conservative choice this year is corn, although many other farmers will plant other crops including soybeans, and look for higher prices months down the road,” Hart said. “There’s no guarantee of that obviously, but the usual pattern is that crop prices tend to rise in the years after planted acreage declines.”

Generally speaking, federal policy decisions don’t have a direct impact on individual farm seed purchases. Farmers tend to buy seed based on the potential economic return from the crop, although for a few producers, those policy changes can mean the difference between profitability and loss.

Those choosing to maintain traditional production practices in light of uncertainty and change in federal policies often will use programs and tools to reduce risks, Hart said.

“Programs like crop/livestock insurance, such as RP, ECO, LRP, DRP, etc., tend to be used more often,” he said. “Farmers and ranchers also tend to focus more on USDA’s updates on the crop and livestock markets to get a sense of the potential shifts in agricultural supplies and demand due to the policy changes.”

The ultimate expectation for exports and imports will depend on the administration’s long-term stance with tariffs, Hart said. At this point, the President has used the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tactic, but relatively few additional tariffs have actually been enacted. For crops, that has translated into a continuation of U.S. export gains. Corn export sales are currently up 24% and soybean export sales are up nearly 15%. For livestock/meat, the data through the first 3 months of 2025 show a shrinking export sector. That is expected with beef as overall beef production continues to decline.