Canadian barley stocks as of Dec. 31 2023 inched higher from a year earlier, while oats plunged.
Total national barley stockpiles as of the end of last year were pegged at 5.453 million in a Statistics Canada grain stocks report Thursday. That is up 5.6% on the year and the heaviest since December 2020 when stocks reached 5.58 million tonnes.
In contrast, oat stocks as of Dec. 31 were estimated at 2.144 million tonnes, a more than 40% fall from the previous year and the tightest December stocks level since 2012, excluding the 2021 drought year when stocks dwindled to just 1.882 million.
The Dec. 31 stocks for both crops were slightly higher than expected, with the average pre-report trade guesses for oats and barley coming in at 2 million and 5.3 million tonnes, respectively.
On-farm stocks barley stocks were up 5.2% on the year to 5.035 million tonnes and commercial stocks were 10.6% higher at 418 000 tonnes. Oat on-farm stocks were down 45.7% to 1.793 million, more than offsetting a 20.6% increase in commercial stocks to 351,000 tonnes.
The increase in barley stocks comes despite the fact 2023 Canadian barley production was down almost 11% on the year to 8.896 million tonnes. However, usage has suffered, likely due to increased imports of US corn which have displaced barley in Prairie feedlot rations.
Based on the Dec. 31 stocks figure and a starting 2023-24 total supply of 9.685 million tonnes, total implied barley usage from the beginning of the crop year on Aug. 1 to Dec. 31 was just 4.232 million tonnes, down more than 20% from the same period a year earlier. In fact, StatsCan reported that domestic barley use alone -largely for feed - decreased 16.6% to 2.9 million tonnes.
For oats, the sharp fall in Dec. 31 stocks was due to a nearly 50% decline in 2023 production to 2.636 million tonnes.
With the smaller crop, usage has slowed, however, with implied consumption between Aug. 1 and Dec. 31 coming in at 1.792 million tonnes, about 10% below the same period a year earlier. StatsCan reported domestic disappearance up to Dec. 31 at 668,500 tonnes, 25.4% below the previous year – also likely because of lower livestock feed use.
On-farm barley stocks in Alberta as of Dec. 31 were pegged at 2.5 million tonnes, down from just over 2.7 million on Dec. 31, 2022. Saskatchewan on-farm barley stocks, at 1.868 million tonnes, were up from 1.432 million the previous year.
On-farm oat stocks in Saskatchewan were estimated at just 900,000 tonnes, down by more than half from a year earlier.
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