Andrew Coyne: Canada’s Productivity Crisis is Now a National Security Issue

At the CrossRoads Crop Conference, the Globe and Mail columnist said slowing growth, aging demographics, and weak competition leave Canada dangerously exposed in an era of economic coercion.
Andrew Coyne didn’t open with small talk.

Speaking today at the CrossRoads Crop Conference in Edmonton, the Globe and Mail columnist said Canada is facing the “most serious economic and security crisis” of his lifetime — one that combines long-running domestic weaknesses with a rapidly shifting global order.

Coyne framed the moment as a collision between two trends: Canada’s slowing economic growth and aging population, and a world where trade and security commitments are less reliable than Canadians have assumed. In that environment, he argued, Canada’s historic advantage — living next to the world’s largest economy and military — can quickly become a vulnerability.

A foundational assumption is cracking
Coyne’s core message was that Canada has built decades of policy — economic, fiscal, defence, and trade — on an assumption that no longer feels stable: that the United States would remain a dependable democratic ally and protector.

He told the audience that Canada’s geography, resources, and relatively small population created a belief that the country could “free ride” on continental security, investing less in its own defence capacity than truly neutral countries ever would. The risk, Coyne argued, is not necessarily an imminent invasion, but a new era of coercion, where interdependence can be used as leverage.