ANALYSIS: Trump tariffs would hammer SW Ontario auto, agri-food sectors

Southwestern Ontario may be Ground Zero for the impact U.S. tariffs would have on the provincial economy, national economists warn.

The region, heartland for automotive manufacturing and agriculture and food, would bear the brunt of the loss of 500,000 jobs forecast as a result of 25-per-cent tariffs threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump on Canadian-made goods sold into the U.S.

The threat to impose tariffs as soon as Saturday has sparked an Ontario election call and is forcing Ontario’s major political parties to define themselves on the critical issue.

“The two largest exporters are food and the auto sector, they are the most exposed,” said Alan Arcand, chief economist with the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters that represents 2,500 companies.

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The Canadian automotive industry sells 75 per cent of its goods to the U.S., compared to 45 per cent for all areas of manufacturing.

“The auto sector is the most vulnerable,” Arcand said.

The Ontario Finance Ministry forecasts the province would lose 500,000 jobs if the U.S. implements the full threatened tariffs. Arcand said he agrees with the projection as does Richard Forbes, principal economist with the Conference Board of Canada.