Jan 09, 2024

A chief commodities economist with StoneX Group says he’s anticipating a boost in U.S. corn and soybean production when USDA releases supply and demand data at the end of the week.

Arlan Suderman tells Brownfield “if we look at the average trade estimates, forecasters are looking for a little bit of an increase in soybeans and decrease in corn. We still think there’s a little more upside potential in the yield.”

Suderman says demand adjustments are also expected and it might not be positive news for the large supplies of U.S. grain and oilseeds. For the corn…

“We already have a big surplus of corn supplies and demand has been struggling,” he says. “USDA has lowered its export expectations for corn. The current pace of sales and shipments are pretty much on the seasonal pace we’d expect them to be to hit that export target.”

Suderman says ethanol demand has been better than expected, along with feed demand. He says USDA might adjust U.S. soybean exports lower because Brazil remains competitive due to good soybean supplies and a better price.

“I think everyone’s just talking about tight soybean stocks and there is some risk USDA might cut exports to build up those ending stocks.”

Suderman says he’s also interested to USDA’s estimate on new crop soybean production in Brazil.

“USDA I think is probably going to disappoint. I think the market is looking for a number around 151 million metric tons in this report and I don’t think USDA will go lower than 154 million metric tons in this report, simply because they like to be conservative.”

USDA will release its January supply and demand, crop production and quarterly stocks reports on Friday at 12 p.m. eastern, 11 a.m. central time.

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