Poilievre projected to win Battle River-Crowfoot

Poilievre projected to win Battle River-Crowfoot
Aug 18, 2025
By Diego Flammini
Assistant Editor, North American Content, Farms.com

338Canada projects he’ll win with around 75 per cent of the vote

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre appears to be on the right track back to Ottawa.

With polls open for the Aug. 18 federal byelection in Battle River-Crowfoot, one poll tracker is confident Poilievre will be in the House of Commons when the fall session begins.

On his website 338Canada.com, Philippe J. Fournier has the riding marked as “CPC safe.”

His projections as of Aug. 17 predict that about 75 per cent of the vote will go to Poilievre.

This marks a slight decline from previous figures.

Fournier’s July 27 figures showed about 80 per cent of support for Poilievre.

The riding is considered one of the safest in the country.

In the 2025 federal election, Damien Kurek, who won the Alberta riding before stepping aside for Poilievre to run, received almost 83 per cent of the vote.

In 2021 the Conservatives got 71 per cent of the vote, and 86 per cent in 2019.

It’s expected ballot counting will take a long time.

That’s because there’s more than 200 candidates for people to vote for.

Most of those are associated with a group known as the Longest Ballot Committee, which floods elections with names to promote electoral reform.

Because of the volume of names, voters will have to write the name of their preferred candidate rather than checking off that person’s name.

How did Poilievre and the people of Battle River-Crowfoot end up in Canada’s political spotlight? Here’s a brief refresher.

April 28 – Poilievre loses his seat in Carleton to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy on election night.

May 2 – Damien Kurek, the Conservative MP who won in Battle River-Crowfoot, announces he is stepping aside to let Poilievre run in his riding.

May 6 – Andrew Scheer is named interim leader of the opposition.

June 18 – Kurek officially resigns his seat.

June 30 – Prime Minister Carney sets byelection date.

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