U.S. ethanol exports to reach new peak in 2025

USDA projects surge in global ethanol demand

Fiscal Year 2025 is set to mark a historic high for U.S. ethanol exports, with projections reaching 2 billion gallons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s recent trade outlook. This aligns with an expected revenue of $4.3 billion from ethanol exports, mirroring the figures from the previous fiscal year.

The increase in exports can be attributed to the U.S.'s competitive edge over Brazilian ethanol, notwithstanding a minor expected decline in the ethanol export unit value, which follows the trend in U.S. corn prices.

Canada’s role as the leading ethanol importer enhances the U.S. position in the market, complemented by steady demands in other markets such as the European Union and the United Kingdom.

The forecast addresses potential constraints including Brazil’s 18% import duty on ethanol which continues to limit U.S. access to one of the larger markets. However, opportunities in other regions like India and Colombia, combined with strategic U.S. pricing and quality, contribute to the optimistic outlook for U.S. ethanol exports.

This projection underscores the USDA's confidence in the U.S. ethanol industry’s ability to navigate international market dynamics and capitalize on global ethanol demand.