Top 5 key market movers to watch the week of September 10th

This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of Septemer 10, 2023. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Colin McNaughton
Farms.com Risk Management Intern

1. The USDA September WASDE crop report is due to be released next week Sept. 12th and it’s the USDA’s first look at their yield objective plat data. With all of the heat and dryness will they surprise with a much lower than anticipated U.S. corn yield at 173.5 bpa and 50.2 on soybean pre-report. Stats Canada is also expected to release its August model-based production results on Sept. 14th, 2023.

2. The USDA crop progress report will be released on Monday, September 11th. The recent crop progress report showed a regression in the condition of both corn and soybeans, likely due to the persistent heat seen throughout the U.S. over the past few weeks. Soybeans sit at 17% poor-very poor, up 3% from last week. Corn also saw a 1% increase in poor-very poor conditions, up to 18%.

Compared to this time last year, the top 3 producers in both corn and soybeans during 2022 are significantly worse off. Iowa, the leading corn producer and second largest soybean producers good-excellent conditions are down 17% in both respective crops. A slight improvement in conditions could be seen this week as the 6-10 day outlooks show below average temperatures and average levels of precipitation.

3. Next week's reports include the USDA grains inspected for export on Monday, September 11th, the EIA ethanol data on Wednesday, September 13th, and the USDA weekly export sales on Thursday, September 14th. The recent grains inspected for export report showed exports were yet again far below last years. Total grains inspected for last week totalled 1.26 mmt, over 23% below last year's 1.64 mmt. This puts the total grains inspected for this year at 96.5 mmt, just 77% of last years 125 mmt.

4. The U.S. drought monitor map will be updated on Thursday, September 14th. The recent update showed an increase in the more significant levels of drought. Iowa saw a 7% increase in D3 (extreme drought) conditions, up to 24.6%. Wisconsin’s D3 affected areas grew by 7.6% (24.3%), accompanied by a 1.78% increase in D4 (exceptional drought) conditions, up to 2.44%. Indiana, which had seen significant improvements over the past few weeks, saw a 35% jump in D0 drought conditions, showing the affects of the late August heat. Similar to crop conditions, there is room for improvement given the forecasted heat and precipitation next week.

5. The U.S. August inflation data will be on Wednesday, September 13th. After seeing 12 straight months of inflation decreasing, July saw inflation rise to 3.2%, up from 3.0% in the prior month. Although an increase, the last time we saw inflation start with a 3 before June 2023 was back in April 2021. The Fed still holds their goal of bringing inflation down to 2%. Stock markets lately are back to worrying about higher interest rates in the U.S. after the BOC paused this week.

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