Record Low in Flaxseed Supply Predicted

Average Flaxseed Price Expected to Rise Driven by Increased Demand and Tight Supplies

The 2024-2025 Canadian flaxseed outlook shows a decrease in production, supply, and exports compared to the previous year. Flaxseed production for 2024-2025 is estimated at 258 thousand tonnes (Kt), marking a modest year-over-year decline. This reduction is attributed to a record low seeded area of 0.20 million hectares (Mha), down from 0.25 Mha in the previous year. Despite stronger yields, the smaller planted area has contributed to a decline in output. 

Imports are expected to remain near normal, but total supplies are projected to be significantly lower, at 432.4 Kt. This is due to a sharp reduction in carry-in stocks and lower production.  

Domestic use is forecast at 92.4 Kt, which is considerably lower than the previous year and the five-year average of 125.4 Kt. Exports are forecast to reach 250 Kt, with carry-out stocks expected to fall to 90 Kt, well below the previous year’s levels. 

The average price for flaxseed (No.1, in-store Saskatoon) is forecast to rise to $630 per tonne for 2024-2025, driven by increased demand and tight supplies. 

Looking ahead to 2025-2026, the seeded area for flaxseed is expected to decrease further to 0.18 Mha, slightly lower than the previous year and well below the five-year average of 0.31 Mha. Production is forecast to decline to 230 Kt, and total supplies are expected to fall to 330 Kt, a 24% decrease from 2024-2025. If realized, this would represent a record low in flaxseed supply. 

Domestic use is expected to remain relatively stable at 90 Kt, but exports are forecast to decrease to 200 Kt, marking a 20% decline from the previous year. Carry-out stocks are projected to fall to 40 Kt, 56% lower than the previous year. The average price for flaxseed (No.1, in-store Saskatoon) is forecast at $700 per tonne for 2025-2026. 

This forecast highlights the challenges faced by the flaxseed market, including lower production and exports, but a slight price increase in the coming years. 

This report provides an update to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) April outlook for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 crop years, which run from August 1 to July 31 for flaxseed. AAFC notes that the projections are based on market conditions and trade policies in effect as of May 13, 2025. 

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