Canola crushing continues to outperform
For the 2024-25 crop year, Canadian canola production is estimated at 17.8 million tonnes (Mt), reflecting a 7% decrease from last year. Despite similar seeded and harvested areas to 2023-24, hot and dry conditions during key growth stages negatively impacted yields. Imports are forecasted at 150,000 tonnes (Kt), contributing to a total supply of 20.7 Mt, a 3% decrease compared to the previous year.
Canola crushing continues to outperform, running 6% ahead of last year's pace. By March 31, 2025, Canada is expected to crush 7.8 Mt of seed, producing 3.3 Mt of canola oil and 4.6 Mt of canola meal. Domestic crush is forecast to reach a record 11.5 Mt, driven by expanded processing capacity and strong demand for canola oil and meal.
Exports have also increased, with 7.69 Mt of canola shipped so far, leading to an upward revision of the export forecast to 8.5 Mt. However, feed, waste, and dockage are expected to be negative, pushing carry-out stocks to a twelve-year low of 1.3 Mt if realized.
The average price for No.1 Track Vancouver is projected to rise by $20/tonne to $675/tonne, though it is 6% lower than the previous year, reflecting the overall decrease in global oilseed prices and ample soybean supplies.