Canadian Soybean Production Expected to Increase

Record 1.65 Mt forecasted for Soybean Crushing - Driven by Soy-Oil

For the 2024-25 crop year, Canadian soybean production is estimated at 7.56 million tonnes (Mt), reflecting a 7% increase compared to last year. The increase is due to a larger seeded and harvested area, along with favorable growing conditions, particularly in Ontario, where production rose by 8% to 4.35 Mt.  

Manitoba and Quebec also saw growth of 8% and 9%, respectively. As a result, total supplies are forecast to reach a six-year high of 8.4 Mt. 

Domestic use is projected at 2.47 Mt, with a record 1.65 Mt forecasted for crushing, driven by steady demand for soy-oil. Exports are also forecast to increase by 10% to 5.40 Mt, surpassing the five-year average of 4.33 Mt. Carry-out stocks are expected to remain relatively stable at 0.56 Mt, supported by solid supplies throughout the crop year. 

The average price for soybeans in Chatham is forecast to remain at $490 per tonne, a significant drop from last year and the five-year average of $595 per tonne, reflecting weaker global prices. 

Looking ahead to 2025-26, Canadian soybean area is expected to decrease slightly to 2.28 million hectares (Mha), 1% lower than the previous year. Production is forecast at 7.25 Mt, a decrease from 2024-25, while total supply is expected to drop to 8.26 Mt. Domestic use is predicted to decrease to 2.25 Mt, despite a rise in industrial use. Soybean exports are forecast at 5.45 Mt, which would be the second-highest on record, but carry-out stocks are projected to remain steady at 0.55 Mt. 

The average price for soybeans in 2025-26 is forecast at $485 per tonne, slightly lower than the previous year. 

In the U.S., soybean planted area is expected to decrease by 4%, with production estimated at 118 Mt. Crushing is predicted to increase slightly, while exports are expected to fall due to stronger competition from South America. 

This report provides an update to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) April outlook for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 crop years, which run from September1 to August 31 for soybeans. AAFC notes that the projections are based on market conditions and trade policies in effect as of May 13, 2025.    

Photo Credit: field-istock-oticki