Predicting the World Cup winner using ag data – Part I

Predicting the World Cup winner using ag data – Part I
Nov 15, 2022

The tournament kicks off this weekend in Qatar

By Diego Flammini
Staff Writer

The biggest soccer tournament in the world gets underway this weekend in Qatar.

Thirty-two national teams from around the world have qualified for the 2022 World Cup and will try to hoist the FIFA World Cup trophy after the final whistle blows on Dec. 18.

Hosts Qatar and Ecuador will play the tournament’s first match on Nov. 20.

The countries are divided into eight groups with each group containing four teams.

The first round of the tournament is a round robin. The top two teams from each group progress to the knockout stage, where a single loss will end a team’s World Cup dreams.

Soccer analysts are combing over rosters, formations, and other factors to determine who the world champions will be. will try to predict the winner using ag-related information.

Using available data, will determine the group and knockout stage winners using agriculture as a percentage of a country’s gross domestic product.

The two countries in each group where agriculture accounts for larger portions of their GDPs will advance to the knockout stage.

Today’s predictions focus on Groups A to D.

All figures are from 2021 and in $USD unless otherwise noted.

Group ACountriesAg Percentage of GDPTotal GDP in 2021
 Qatar0.3$179.6 billion
Advances to knockout stageEcuador9.41$106.2 billion
Winners of Group ASenegal15.32$27.63 billion
 Netherlands1.57$1.018 trillion
Group B   
 England0.51$3.187 trillion
Winners of Group BIran8 percent in 2020$231.5 billion in 2020
 USA0.6$23 trillion 
Advances to knockout stageWalesLess than 2 percent$90.3 billion in 2020
Group C   
Winners of Group CArgentina6.87$491.5 billion
 Saudi Arabia3.6$833.5 billion
Advances to knockout stageMexico3.84$1.293 trillion
 Poland2.37$674 billion
Group D   
 France1.63$2.937 trillion
Advances to knockout stageAustralia2.27$1.543 trillion
 Denmark0.97$397.1 billion
Winners of Group DTunisia12$46.84 billion

Be sure to check back for the remaining group breakdowns and knockout stage results.

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