Markets Eye USDA August Crop Report Impact

Markets Eye USDA August Crop Report Impact
Aug 11, 2025
By Denise Faguy
Assistant Editor, North American Content, Farms.com

Analysts weigh yield forecasts and weather effects

On the Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast with Farms.com Risk Management, Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino and Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal examined key market drivers for the week of August 4 to 8.

The discussion focused on the upcoming USDA August Crop Report, commodity price movements, and the influence of recent weather patterns. The USDA may announce the largest 2025 US corn and soybean yields August crop, Tuesday, August 12, report but will they walk back the yields announced January 12, 2025?

Agostino and Gopal noted unwinding in soybean meal and oil spreads, with meal rebounding from oversold conditions but expected to face heavy supply over the next year. Soy oil corrected after recent highs, while canola prices softened in line with soy oil futures. Cattle markets saw record highs before a modest correction, and natural gas prices slipped below $3 after seasonal demand changes.

The USDA is expected to raise corn yield estimates from July’s 181 bushels per acre, with trade forecasts averaging 184.3 and some private projections near 188. Soybean yields are forecast at 53 bushels per acre, slightly above July’s figure. On the global balance sheet, corn and soybean ending stocks are projected higher, with South American crops contributing to increased supply.

Weather data shows Iowa and other key regions receiving above-normal rainfall, improving vegetation health. While moisture supports yields, excessive rain in some western corn belt areas, combined with high nighttime temperatures and disease pressures like tar spot and white mold, could trim top-end yield potential.

Export demand strengthened, with U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat sales exceeding expectations despite global competition. Agostino and Gopal suggested strong buying interest may help offset slower Chinese purchases of new-crop soybeans.

Market attention now turns to the USDA report, which could confirm record yields or reveal limits from late-season weather and disease issues. As Agostino noted, “The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting,” emphasizing the importance of patience in commodity markets.

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit things; Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.

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