The USDA is expected to raise corn yield estimates from July’s 181 bushels per acre, with trade forecasts averaging 184.3 and some private projections near 188. Soybean yields are forecast at 53 bushels per acre, slightly above July’s figure. On the global balance sheet, corn and soybean ending stocks are projected higher, with South American crops contributing to increased supply.
Weather data shows Iowa and other key regions receiving above-normal rainfall, improving vegetation health. While moisture supports yields, excessive rain in some western corn belt areas, combined with high nighttime temperatures and disease pressures like tar spot and white mold, could trim top-end yield potential.
Export demand strengthened, with U.S. corn, soybean, and wheat sales exceeding expectations despite global competition. Agostino and Gopal suggested strong buying interest may help offset slower Chinese purchases of new-crop soybeans.
Market attention now turns to the USDA report, which could confirm record yields or reveal limits from late-season weather and disease issues. As Agostino noted, “The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting,” emphasizing the importance of patience in commodity markets.
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