Corn prices face pressure as yields rise

Favorable weather boosts US corn yield outlook

Corn futures briefly dropped below $4 a bushel this week, marking their lowest point since October 2024, before recovering slightly. Favorable growing weather and abundant rainfall have helped strengthen crop conditions across the US, increasing expectations for record-breaking yields. 

Analysts note that traders are estimating yields well above the US Department of Agriculture’s July forecast of 181 bushels per acre. StoneX recently projected yields at 188.1 bushels per acre, while some experts suggest they could reach the mid-180s. The USDA will update its official estimate in the August 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. 

“The ‘path of least resistance for corn prices is likely sideways to a slow grind lower until late August,’ said Total Farm Marketing analyst Naomi Blohm.“Ample wheat harvests and China avoiding purchases of US crops amid the trade dispute with US President Donald Trump also are heaping pressure on markets.” 

Farmer selling is also playing a role in the price decline, with producers clearing old crop stocks before harvest. Greg McBride of Allendale, Inc. said this is widening basis levels as more bushels enter the market. 

If national yields reach 185 bushels per acre or more, production could exceed 16 billion bushels, pushing ending stocks above 2 billion. This could drive prices below last year’s $3.85 low, with some analysts suggesting levels near $3.50 are possible. 

Another concern is that only about 5% of the new crop has been priced, leaving a large volume of corn uncontracted as harvest approaches. With high yields likely and unpriced grain entering the market, analysts believe corn prices could remain under pressure through late August. 

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