Markets brace for USDA December crop update

Podcast reviews soybean slide, the livestock rebound and macro market trends.

On the weekly Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast with Farms.com Risk Management, Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino and Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal, began reviewing the markets for the week of December 1 to 5, 2025, by looking at grains and oilseeds.

They shared that soybean futures fell sharply during the week, with charts showing a possible breakdown below key support near $11.00 per bushel. Soybean meal also weakened.

Analysts expect the upcoming USDA December crop report to be a quiet event, with most changes delayed until the January report, but traders still hope for lower US yield estimates in corn and soybeans. Agostino believes that having missed the October data because of the U.S. government shutdown means the USDA may not have fully captured disease damage and late-season dryness.

South American crop estimates for corn and soybeans remain near record levels, although some private forecasters have trimmed Brazilian soybean output slightly. Weather models disagree on how much rain will reach Brazil’s driest areas. If forecast rains fail, the funds could add a weather risk premium in soybean futures in a classic South American weather scare.

The team noted that Chinese soybean purchases are lagging earlier promises which means export totals trail last year, still down 40% even with the new Chinese buying. Confusing messaging from officials about buying deadlines continue to frustrate the market and is weighing on prices.

In Canada, new final 2025 Statistics Canada forecast numbers confirmed record-large wheat and canola crops, while drought in Ontario cut corn and soybean yields. Tight local corn supplies are supporting cash prices in Ontario. A Canadian jobs report and third-quarter GDP pushed the Canadian dollar above seventy-two US cents, creating new currency considerations for basis and hedging.

Livestock markets were a brighter spot, with live and feeder cattle showing a V-shaped recovery after earlier losses, supported by tight supplies and continuing disease concerns. Lean hog futures also firmed as African swine fever cases in Europe highlight global supply risks.

Outside of agriculture, natural gas prices surged on export and winter demand, while bitcoin moved into a trading range after a sharp correction.

Comments from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer have confirmed that the U.S. and China have not reached an agreement on U.S. soybean purchases. But Agostino is suggesting there are signs China is buying. This uncertainty should continue to drive funds crazy. Will USDA surprise next Tuesday at the next WASDE report –the last of the year?

Watch the complete podcast below.

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