Market Movers to Watch for the Week of July 1st 2024

Russion weather will have an impact on commodity markets this week

This week there are four key reports to watch, plus weather in Russia, that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of; July 4, 2024. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Devin Lashley
Farms.com Risk Management Intern

1. The U.S. Employment Report comes out Friday July 5th and will likely show a decrease in the unemployment rate in the U.S. as First-time applications for U.S. unemployment benefits decreased last week, but the number of people on jobless rolls surged to a 2.5-year high in mid-June, indicating that labor market conditions are easing amid slowing economic growth.

2. The USDA Crop Progress Report comes out Monday July 1st and will continue to show lower crop conditions in both corn and soybeans after a 1,000 year flood hit the Northwestern U.S. impacting as much as 10 percent of the acres close to 18 million! According to Maxar Weather, the 2024 U.S. corn crop is expected to reach 50% pollination on July 17th, 2 days earlier than the 5-year average and on par with last year.

3. The U.S. Drought Monitor report will be out on Friday July 5th (Markets are closed July 4) and will show an expansion of the drought in the Southeast US -- Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma -- where crops are burning up. These are less important U.S. states because they are smaller producers vs. Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa, so not a big concern with the big hedge funds - at least for now.

4. Keep an eye on the weather in Russia, prolonged dry weather and frosts have already decimated the Russian wheat harvest. With little to no rain forecasted for either the southern growing regions or the growing regions in western Siberia we could see more headline news that early wheat yields are lower than expected.

5. The USDA Fats and Oils, Oilseed Crushing’s, Production, Consumption and Stocks report comes out Monday July 1st and will likely show continued strength, following a positive crush report from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) earlier this month. The NOPA report tallied May crush at 183.63 Mbu among its members. That was a record for the month, more than 5 Mbu above the average trade guess, and an 8.37 percent increase from the April dip.

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit the Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.