2. The USDA Crop Progress Report comes out Monday July 1st and will continue to show lower crop conditions in both corn and soybeans after a 1,000 year flood hit the Northwestern U.S. impacting as much as 10 percent of the acres close to 18 million! According to Maxar Weather, the 2024 U.S. corn crop is expected to reach 50% pollination on July 17th, 2 days earlier than the 5-year average and on par with last year.
3. The U.S. Drought Monitor report will be out on Friday July 5th (Markets are closed July 4) and will show an expansion of the drought in the Southeast US -- Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma -- where crops are burning up. These are less important U.S. states because they are smaller producers vs. Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa, so not a big concern with the big hedge funds - at least for now.
4. Keep an eye on the weather in Russia, prolonged dry weather and frosts have already decimated the Russian wheat harvest. With little to no rain forecasted for either the southern growing regions or the growing regions in western Siberia we could see more headline news that early wheat yields are lower than expected.
5. The USDA Fats and Oils, Oilseed Crushing’s, Production, Consumption and Stocks report comes out Monday July 1st and will likely show continued strength, following a positive crush report from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) earlier this month. The NOPA report tallied May crush at 183.63 Mbu among its members. That was a record for the month, more than 5 Mbu above the average trade guess, and an 8.37 percent increase from the April dip.
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