Livestock Receipts Set Records While Crops Weaken

Livestock strength and disaster aid boost farm economy

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its September 2025 net farm income forecast on September 3, projecting a strong increase in profitability for the farm sector. Net farm income is forecast at $179.8 billion, a 40.7% jump from $127.8 billion in 2024. Adjusted for inflation, income is expected to rise by nearly 37%.

While the increase suggests improvements in the farm economy, the outlook remains mixed. Livestock producers are expected to lead the growth, with cash receipts projected to reach a record $298.6 billion, up $30 billion from 2024. Cattle and calves are forecast at $129.7 billion, a record high, supported by strong demand and limited supplies. Hog receipts are forecast to increase by 9.5%, and poultry receipts are also rising, with egg sales jumping more than 35%.

In contrast, crop receipts are forecast to decline to $236.6 billion, the lowest since 2007. Corn, soybeans, and wheat are all expected to see lower receipts due to reduced production and weaker prices, though fruits and nuts will see gains.

Production expenses are projected at $467.5 billion in 2025, up nearly $12 billion from 2024. Rising costs for labor, taxes, and livestock purchases weigh heavily on producers. At the same time, farm debt is expected to grow to nearly $592 billion, with interest expenses topping $33 billion.

A key driver of the higher income forecast is disaster and economic assistance. Direct government payments are projected at $40.5 billion, more than triple the 2024 level, as Congress authorized supplemental aid to cover past losses.

The forecast underscores a fragile balance: livestock markets are performing strongly, but crop challenges, rising debt, and reliance on temporary government programs highlight the uncertainty of sustaining farm income growth in the years ahead.