By Jean-Paul MacDonald
Farms.com
As the specter of African swine fever (ASF) continues to cast a shadow over the swine industry, researchers from North Carolina State University have delved into the potential consequences of an outbreak in the southeastern U.S. Utilizing a computer model, they examined the transmission routes and evaluated existing response plans, shedding light on the readiness of the country to combat this highly contagious viral disease.
ASF poses a significant threat to pigs, with a mortality rate that can reach a devastating 100%. Complicating matters further, infected pigs may not display symptoms before succumbing to the disease, enabling the virus to spread undetected. The potential cost of an ASF outbreak in the U.S. has been estimated at a staggering $80 billion.
To assess the dynamics of a potential outbreak, the researchers employed an epidemiological model called PigSpread. This model incorporated six transmission routes, including between-farm swine movements, vehicle movements, and local spread. Drawing from the Morrison Swine Health Monitoring Project, data from 2,294 swine farms in the southeastern U.S. were analyzed to inform the model.