WASDE: Robust Crops, High Input Costs, Strained Margins

By Faith Parum

USDA’s August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report incorporates the first field-based yield projections for the 2025/26 crop year. Updated forecasts for row crops adjust production and stock levels that will influence prices heading into harvest. Meanwhile, USDA’s latest Farm Production Expenditures report shows near-record costs for farmers, underscoring the challenge of maintaining margins in today’s uncertain market conditions.

August WASDE Highlights

USDA’s August WASDE sets the stage for fall markets by including actual field data.

Corn

Corn yields are projected at 188.8 bushels per acre, up 7.8 bushels (4%) from last month’s estimate. If realized, this would be a record yield coupled with record acreage after a 1.9-million-acre increase in harvested area from last month. This would bring projected 2025/26 production to 16.7 billion bushels, 1 billion more than last month’s forecast and 1.4 billion above the previous record set in 2023/24. USDA raised 2025/26 total corn use by 545 million bushels from last month, including a 250-million-bushel increase in feed and residual use, 100 million more for ethanol and a record 2.9 billion bushels projected for exports.

Even with higher use, supply growth outpaces demand, pushing ending stocks up to 457 million bushels from last month to 2.1 billion bushels, the highest since 2018/19 and about 60% above the 1.34 billion carried into 2024/25. The season-average price is lowered 30 cents from last month to $3.90 per bushel, reflecting the pressure of a record crop and expectations for relatively low global prices. Following the release of the report today, the December 2025 corn futures contract fell 13 cents to $3.94, which marks the first close below $4 for any 2025 corn contract other than September.