With the goal of revitalizing U.S. manufacturing, stimulating the domestic economy, and offsetting income tax from taxpayers through increased tariff revenue, the announcement has triggered widespread market uncertainty. Concerns over a potential recession – now estimated at a 60% probability – along with rising inflation and the threat of a global trade war have sent markets tumbling, wiping trillions of dollars off some of the world’s largest companies. Ultimately, consumers are left to bear the cost. Additionally, as part of the broader strategy is refinancing at lower rates The U.S. national debt comes due, amounting to just over $36 trillion.
Japan also factors risk, ranking the second-largest buyer of U.S. corn this year with 16.7% of total export sales with 108 million bushels still awaiting shipment, showing the fundamental risk at hand. With China having just announced a 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, soybeans are now directly in the crosshairs – and if the EU follows suit, the consequences for American agriculture could escalate rapidly.
Regardless of the tariffs if a global recession does happen ag commodities perform poor as it destroys demand. However, rising inflation could offset it as funds like to buy ag commodities as a hedge against that rising inflation like from 2020 to 2022.
Big hedge funds and investors got it wrong underestimating the impact of these tariffs that were much worse than expected. This is another global “Black Swan” event is like COVID of 2020, and the falling knife may not stop until next week when DOW hits bear market territory down over 20%. In March of 202 we fell over 38.8% in just 5 trading days!
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