Big Grain Harvest Brings Storage Strain

Record supplies and limited space pressure farm profits

Farmers are heading into another harvest with record grain production and limited storage space. Strong yields and large carryover stocks are keeping prices low, while high transportation and energy costs increase pressure on farm profitability.

According to USDA’s September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), corn production for 2025/26 is projected at a record 16.8 billion bushels, up sharply from last year’s 14.87 billion. Exports are expected to rise slightly, but ending stocks remain near 2.1 billion bushels, holding prices down. Soybean production is also set higher at 4.3 billion bushels, though export demand has dropped by 20 million bushels, signaling global competition.

The pause in October’s WASDE report, due to federal budget uncertainty, leaves markets without key updates during peak harvest, adding uncertainty.

USDA’s September Grain Stocks report shows corn stocks at 1.52 billion bushels—down 13% from 2024—while soybeans fell 8%. Wheat stocks, however, climbed 6% to 2.12 billion bushels.

Even as production expands, total storage capacity grew only 0.1% in 2024, reaching 25.5 billion bushels. On paper, this seems adequate, but regional bottlenecks remain. Major Corn Belt states like Iowa and Illinois have little new capacity, and river transport delays worsen congestion.

Experts warn that total storage remains about 2.4 billion bushels short of what’s needed for all grain and carryover stocks. With higher interest and labour costs, storing grain is increasingly expensive. “When transport slows, storage becomes the pressure valve,” analysts note.

As bins fill and costs rise, space, timing, and liquidity will determine how well farmers weather another challenging harvest season.