The hog sector presents a different scenario. Isowean prices are projected to be lower year-over-year, with Manitoba prices for feeders and market hogs remaining stable at 2023 levels.
Eastern Canada might see a positive trend with hog prices likely trending higher. However, margins for Isowean are expected to be close to breakeven in the East, with a slightly more favorable outlook in Manitoba.
Two key trends worth monitoring in 2024 are feed availability and the global and domestic demand for pork. Feed costs, though easing, remain a concern with barley and corn prices still above their five-year averages. This trend is exacerbated by increasing hay prices in Alberta due to last year's drought impacting alfalfa production.
On the pork demand front, global dynamics are shifting. China, the world's largest pork producer and consumer, is experiencing slower economic growth and population decline, leading to a decrease in its domestic pork consumption and production. This change is impacting Canadian exports, which have not reached their pre-African Swine Fever levels.
Canadian pork producers also face challenges with a long-term declining trend in domestic demand and global economic pressures affecting export markets. However, recent price competitiveness has helped boost domestic consumption.
2024 is shaping up to be a year of cautious optimism for the Canadian cattle sector, while the hog industry faces a more complex landscape of challenges and opportunities. As global economic and environmental factors continue to influence these sectors, Canadian farmers and stakeholders must stay agile and informed to navigate the year ahead.