World Grains Production, Ending Stocks Reduced

The International Grains Council has trimmed its 2023-24 world grains production estimate from last month, with ending stocks reduced as well. 

In its latest monthly Grain Market Report, the IGC pegged total grains output (wheat and coarse grains) at 2.292 billion tonnes, down 2 million from the previous month, as reductions for corn and barley output were only partially offset by a higher wheat estimate. However, total production remains 27 million tonnes above a year earlier although still below the 2021-22 crop of 2.296 billion.  

With projected 2023-24 demand unchanged from September at 2.305 billion tonnes, this month’s downgrade in production – along with tighter than previously estimated opening stocks – means 2023-24 world grains ending stocks are down 6 million tonnes to 582 million. That is 13 million tonnes below the previous year and the tightest in nine years. 

Much of the year-over-year fall in total grains ending stocks reflects tighter global wheat inventories in China and India, as well as the key global exporters, the IGC said. 

At an estimated 263 million tonnes, global wheat ending stocks are unchanged this month, but are 19 million below a year earlier. On the other hand, the IGC is now projecting the 2023-24 world wheat crop at 785 million tonnes, an increase of 2 million from September but well down from 803 million the previous year. 

For the major exporters – Canada, the US, the EU, Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, Australia, Kazakhstan – wheat ending stocks for 2023-24 are pegged at 56 million tonnes, up 1 million from last month but 10 million below a year ago. 

In contrast to the tightening seen in global wheat ending stocks, world corn stocks are seen rising 11 million tonnes year-over-year to 283 million – even with this month’s reduction of 6 million. 

For soybeans, the IGC is forecasting the 2023-24 world crop at 393 million tonnes, down 3 million from September but up from 367 million in 2022-23. Projected global soy ending stocks, at 62 million tonnes, are steady from September but way up from 54 million last year