The International Grains Council (IGC) has raised its 2021-22 global grains production and ending stocks estimates from last month, mainly due to upwardly revised corn crops in the US and Ukraine.
In its monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the IGC raised its estimate of total world grains (wheat and coarse grains) production by 5 million tonnes from August to 2.289 billion, a 3% increase over the previous year. Meanwhile, with production higher and larger-than-expected beginning stocks – along with no month-over-month change in projected demand - 2021-22 ending stocks of total grains are now estimated at 599 million tonnes, up 10 million from August and 1 million above 2020-21.
For corn specifically, expected world production was raised 7 million tonnes from August to a record 1.209 billion tonnes. As part of that increase, this year’s US corn crop was raised to 380.3 million tonnes from 374.7 million in August, while Ukraine output was bumped up to 38.5 million tonnes from 37.3 million. With production higher, world corn ending stocks for 2021-22 are now estimated by the IGC at 282 million tonnes, up from 270 million in August and 9 million above the previous year.
On the other hand, the IGC reduced its 2021-22 world wheat production estimate from last month, dropping it 1 million tonnes to 781 million. With expected demand holding steady from August at 783 million tonnes, the global wheat ending stocks estimate was trimmed 1 million tonnes to 277 million, 2 million below the 2020-21 ending stocks level.
There were few significant changes to the IGC’s 2021-22 global soybean outlook this month, with bigger harvests in the US and Brazil expected to underpin record production of 380 million tonnes, unchanged from the August estimate. At 57 million tonnes, projected 2021-22 soybean ending stocks are also unchanged from last month, but up 3 million from a year earlier.
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