Record Corn Exports Highlight USDA December Grain Outlook

U.S. Corn Exports Hit a NEW Record forecast by the USDA while U.S. soybean export forecast was left unchanged in the USDA Report

On the weekly Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast with Farms.com Risk Management, Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino and Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal, began reviewing the markets for the week of December 8 to 12, 2025. The USDA’s December crop report delivered mixed signals for the grain markets, offering supportive news for corn, a neutral outlook for soybeans, and continued pressure for wheat.

The most notable surprise came from corn, as USDA raised its 2025/26 U.S. corn export forecast to a record 3.2 billion bushels. This represents a 12% increase from last year, compared with a prior USDA estimate of +9%, and reflects an export pace currently running 30% ahead of last season—the strongest performance in a decade and even exceeding the 2020/21 marketing year says Agostino the best in 10 years!

Soybeans, by contrast, saw little change, with USDA leaving the 2025/26 U.S. soybean export forecast unchanged at 1.635 billion bushels. While demand remains steady, it has yet to show the kind of upside momentum seen in corn. Wheat continued to face headwinds, as ample global supplies are expected to weigh on prices through the end of the year and into early 2026.

Mexico has emerged as a major bright spot for U.S. agriculture, now ranking as the top buyer of U.S. corn, soybeans, wheat, and pork—a notable shift, particularly in soybeans, where China typically dominates. However, China remains a focal point of concern says the two commodity experts.

U.S. soybean purchases by China currently total 4.521 million metric tons, or about 38% of the 12 million metric tons pledged. Confusion remains over the timing of those commitments, creating uncertainty and poor optics for U.S. trade policy.

Outside of grains, markets saw heightened volatility. U.S. natural gas futures dropped more than 30% in just five trading days after reaching contract highs. Silver surged to record levels on continued debasement and de-dollarization themes, though technical indicators suggest the market is overbought in the near term.

Soybean futures remain in a corrective phase after funds-built a near record-long position of 233,000 contracts in mid-November, though technical support near $10.80 is expected to hold into year-end.

Macroeconomic factors are also in play. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for a third time, lowering the target range to 3.50–3.75%, with expectations for one more cut in 2026 (more hawkish) before leadership changes next year.

Meanwhile, South American weather has improved in Brazil, keeping a record crop possible, though delayed harvest risks increased if rains continue to fall says Agostino. Argentina has turned drier, but its impact is minor compared with Brazil.

The Canadian dollar strengthened on solid economic data, though Agostino says gains may prove temporary.

Watch the complete podcast below.

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