Wheat Outlook: Projected U.S. 2014/15 Ending Stocks Down Year to Year

May 14, 2014

U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are projected down 10 percent from 2013/14 with beginning stocks, production, and imports all expected to be lower. Supplies for the new marketing year are projected to be the lowest since 2007/08. Production is projected at 1,963 million bushels, down 8 percent from last year. The all wheat yield is projected at 42.7 bushels per acre, down 4.5 bushels from the 2013/14 record. The survey-based forecast for 2014/15 all winter wheat production is down 9 percent on the year with the harvested-toplanted ratio just above last year’s 11-year low and the yield forecast at its lowest level since 2007/08. Most of the decline year to year in winter wheat reflects lower area and yields for soft red winter wheat. This year’s lower hard red winter (HRW) wheat yield forecast is offset by higher harvested area, leaving HRW production just above last year’s very low level. Continued drought and April freeze events have sharply reduced yield prospects for HRW wheat. White winter wheat production is forecast lower on the year with reduced area and yields. Spring wheat production for 2014/15 is projected to decline 6 percent as higher area is more than offset by lower projected yields. Durum yields last year were well above trend and other spring yields were record high.

Total U.S. wheat use for 2014/15 is projected down 11 percent year to year as feed and residual disappearance and exports are expected to fall with tighter supplies and higher prices. Projected feed and residual disappearance is down 50 million bushels as abundant feed grain supplies and lower feed grain prices limit wheat feeding during the summer months. Partly offsetting are a 10-million-bushel increase in domestic food use and a 2- million-bushel increase in seed use. Exports for 2014/15 are projected at 950 million bushels, down 235 million from this month’s higher 2013/14 projection, as large supplies in other major exporting countries and tight domestic supplies of HRW wheat limit U.S. shipments. U.S. ending stocks are projected to decline for a fifth consecutive year. At 540 million bushels, 2014/15 ending stocks would be down 43 million from 2013/14. The all wheat season-average farm price is projected at $6.65 to $7.95 per bushel.

World wheat production in 2014/15 is projected to decline from the previous year’s record but remain the second largest on record. An increase in foreign beginning stocks are forecast to offset the production decline, leaving slightly increased foreign supplies. With higher prices, modest reductions in wheat use are expected, and global stocks are projected to increase for the second consecutive year.

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Source: USDA

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