Wet Times and Challenges Ahead

By Jim Noel

Unlike last year's weak La Nina, this weak to moderate La Nina is behaving much more like an average La Nina. That means wetter and more challenging times ahead compared to 2021.

The pattern looks wet from now through spring. It looks pretty certain we will see a wetter late winter and spring than 2021 but right now it does not look as wet as 2019 or 2011 but it does look wetter than normal.

The official NOAA precipitation outlook through April is at this link:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif

The official NOAA outlook for rainfall from April-June (heart of planting season) you can see it here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead03/off03_prcp.gif

The summer outlook for rainfall still looks normal to wetter than normal and you can see the NOAA outlook here:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead05/off05_prcp.gif

Other challenges appear to be cold ground temperatures currently that will combine with a mild March but indications of a chilly April. This could mean ground temperatures will lag until at least May. This is something worth watching. If recent trends of a chilly April continue it could mean the last freeze/frost will be later than normal as well.

For the rest of February on a last note, it looks wet. Normal precipitation for about 2 weeks is 1-1.25 inches. We are looking at 2 to possibly 4 inches of precipitation from north to south across the state as shown in the image. A lot will come as rain but some snow will also occur in places. This will results in precipitation being 175%-300%+ of normal.