Soybeans
November 2014 soybean futures closed at $9.77 up 26 cents for the week with support at $9.59 and resistance at $10.10. Nov/Dec soybean to corn price ratio was 2.77 at the end of the week. For the week, average soybean basis weakened or remained unchanged in all five regions. Basis ranged from 40 under to 50 over the November futures contract at elevators and barge points. Average basis at the end of the week was 2 under the November futures contract. The Crop Progress report estimated soybeans dropping leaves at 95% compared to 91% last week, 93% last year, and a 5-year average of 97%; soybeans harvested at 53% compared to 40% last week, 61% last year, and a 5-year average of 66%; and soybean condition at 73% good to excellent 6% poor to very poor. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated soybeans dropping leaves at 91% compared to 84% last week, 76% last year, and a 5-year average of 90%; soybeans harvested at 30% compared to 24% last week, 22% last year, and a 5-year average of 44%; and soybean condition at 86% good to excellent 2% poor to very poor. This week November 2014 soybean futures traded between $9.36 and $10.02. January cash forward contracts averaged $9.85 with a range of $9.44 to $10.23.
January 2015 soybean futures closed at $9.83 up 24 cents from last week with support at $9.65 and resistance at $10.17. Net sales reported by exporters were above expectations with net sales of 79.6 million bushels for the 2014/15 marketing year and 0.1 million bushels for the 2015/16 marketing year. Exports for the same period were up from last week at 69.1 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 71% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2014/15 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to a 5-year average of 60%. Nov/Jan and Nov/Nov future spreads were 6 cents and 0 cents. November 2015 futures closed at $9.77. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $9.80 November 2015 Put Option which would cost 75 cents and set a $9.05 futures floor.
Cotton
December 2014 cotton futures closed at 63.81 cents up 0.81 cents for the week with support at 61.80 and resistance at 65.66. Cotton adjusted world price (AWP) decreased 0.53 cents to 49.30 cents. The Crop Progress report estimated cotton bolls opening at 86% compared to 77% last week, 80% last year, and a 5-year average of 90%; cotton harvested at 29% compared to 22% last week, 20% last year, and a 5-year average of 31%; and cotton condition at 47% good to excellent 19% poor to very poor. In Tennessee, the Crop Progress report estimated cotton bolls opening at 93% compared to 90% last week, 68% last year, and a 5-year average of 92%; cotton harvested at 20% compared to 13% last week, 8% last year, and a 5-year average of 41%; and cotton condition at 73% good to excellent 3% poor to very poor. December cotton futures traded between 61.98 and 64.66 cents this week. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 64 cent December 2014 Put Option costing 1.15 cents establishing a 62.85 cent futures floor.
March 2014 cotton futures closed at 62.17 up 0.44 cents for the week with support at 61.21 and resistance at 63.47. Net sales reported by exporters were up from last week at 78,800 bales for the 2014/15 marketing year and 2,500 bales for the 2015/16 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down from last week at 98,100 bales. Cotton export sales were 61% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2014/15 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to a 5-year average of 53%. Dec/Mar future spread was -1.64 cents. December 2015 cotton futures closed at 65.76.
Wheat
December 2014 wheat futures closed at $5.17 up 1 cent from last week with support at $5.02 and resistance at $5.46. In Memphis, old crop cash wheat traded between $4.68 and $4.81 for the week. December wheat futures traded between $5.07 and $5.39 this week. December wheat to corn price ratio was 1.46. Dec/Mar and Dec/July future spreads were 14 cents and 29 cents.
March 2015 wheat futures closed at $5.31 up 3 cents from last week with support at $5.16 and resistance at $5.60. Net sales reported by exporters were below expectations at 11 million bushels for the 2014/15 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down from last week at 15.9 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 59% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2014/15 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to a 5-year average of 58%. The Crop Progress report estimated winter wheat planted at 76% compared to 68% last week, 77% last year, and a 5-year average of 77%; and winter wheat emerged at 56% compared to 43% last week, 51% last year, and a 5-year average of 50%. In Tennessee, winter wheat planting was estimated at 25% compared to 20% last week, 0% last year, and a 5-year average of 24%; and winter wheat emerged at 11% compared to 6% last week, 0% last year, and a 5-year average of 5%. June/July 2015 cash forward contracts averaged $5.18 with a range of $4.79 to $5.55 at elevators and barge points. July 2015 wheat futures closed at $5.46. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.50 July 2015 Put Option costing 37 cents establishing a $5.13 futures floor.
Source : utk.edu