WASDE:U.S. Wheat Supplies Projected Down 10% From Last Year

May 09, 2014

U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are projected down 10 percent from 2013/14 with beginning stocks, production, and imports all expected lower. Supplies for the new marketing year are projected to be the lowest since 2007/08. Production is projected at 1,963 million bushels, down 8 percent from last year. The all wheat yield is projected at 42.7 bushels per acre, down 4.5 bushels from the 2013/14 record. The survey-based forecast for 2014/15 all winter wheat production is down 9 percent on the year with the harvested-to-planted ratio just above last year’s 11-year low and the yield forecast at its lowest level since 2007/08. Most of the decline year to year in winter wheat reflects lower area and yields for Soft Red Winter wheat. This year’s lower Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat yield forecast is offset by higher harvested area, leaving HRW production just above last year’s very low level. Continued drought and April freeze events have sharply reduced yield prospects for HRW wheat. White Winter wheat production is forecast lower on the year with reduced area and yields. Spring wheat production for 2014/15 is projected to decline 6 percent as higher area is more than offset by lower projected yields. Durum yields last year were well above trend and other spring yields were record high.
Total U.S. wheat use for 2014/15 is projected down 11 percent year to year as feed and residual disappearance and exports are expected to fall with tighter supplies and higher prices. Projected feed and residual disappearance is down 50 million bushels as abundant feed grain supplies and lower feed grain prices limit wheat feeding during the summer months. Partly offsetting are a 10-million-bushel increase in domestic food use and a 2-million-bushel increase in seed use. Exports for 2014/15 are projected at 950 million bushels, down 235 million from this month’s higher 2013/14 projection, as large supplies in other major exporting countries and tight domestic supplies of HRW wheat limit U.S. shipments. U.S. ending stocks are projected to decline for a fifth consecutive year. At 540 million bushels, 2014/15 ending stocks would be down 43 million from 2013/14. The all wheat season-average farm price is projected at $6.65 to $7.95 per bushel. Global 2014/15 wheat supplies are projected down less than 1 percent from 2013/14 as reduced beginning stocks and production in the United States offset higher foreign beginning stocks. World wheat production is projected at 697.0 million tons, down 2 percent from the 2013/14 record. Foreign production is projected 12.4 million tons lower in 2014/15 with increases for Argentina, the European Union, China, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Mexico, and India more than offset by reductions for Canada, Turkey, Morocco, Ukraine, Australia, Iran, and Syria. Lower area and a return to trend yields also reduce production in Canada from last year’s record high. In the Middle East, persistent dryness and early April freezes have severely damaged winter wheat crops from Turkey to northeastern Iran. For Ukraine, lower reported area and a return to trend yields reduce expected output.
Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is projected 1 percent lower than in 2013/14 with a reduction in world wheat feeding only partly offset by higher expected food use. Global import demand for 2014/15 is lower with reductions for China, Iran, Brazil, Mexico, and Algeria more than offsetting increases for the European Union and Turkey. Exports are lower for the European Union, India, Canada, Ukraine, Turkey, and Australia, but higher for Argentina and Russia. Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 187.4 million tons, up 0.9 million from 2013/14.

Source: USDA

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