OILSEEDS: The 2017/18 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4,255 million bushels, down 52 million from last year’s record crop with a forecast lower trend yield more than offsetting higher harvested area. With sharply higher beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected at 4,715 million bushels, up 4 percent from 2016/17.
The U.S. soybean crush for 2017/18 is projected at 1,950 million bushels, up 25 million from the revised 2016/17 forecast. Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase with expected gains in U.S. meat production. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 12.4 million short tons, leaving the U.S share of global trade slightly lower than in 2016/17. With increased supplies and lower projected prices, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2,150 million bushels, up 100 million from the revised 2016/17 projection. Despite sharply higher beginning stocks in South America this fall, a smaller projected harvest in early 2018 leaves 2017/18 total supplies almost unchanged from 2016/17, limiting projected gains for South American soybean exports. With forecast global soybean import growth of 5 percent, the U.S. soybean export share is projected at 39 percent, up slightly from 2016/17 and near the 5-year average. U.S. ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected at 480 million bushels, up 45 million from the revised 2016/17 forecast. The 2017/18 U.S. season-average soybean price range is forecast at $8.30 to $10.30 per bushel compared with $9.55 per bushel in 2016/17. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 to $335 per short ton, compared with $320 per ton for 2016/17. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 30.0 to 34.0 cents per pound compared with 31.75 cents for 2016/17.
The 2017/18 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, crush, and exports compared to last year. Global oilseed production is projected at 572.1 million tons, up 6.0 million from 2016/17. Growth in rapeseed, cottonseed, peanut, sunflowerseed, copra, and palm kernel is partly offset by lower soybean production. Soybean production is projected down 3.4 million tons to 344.7 million mainly on declines from last year’s records for the United States, Brazil, and Paraguay as yields return to trend levels. Conversely, soybean production is forecast up for Canada, China, Bolivia, and Ukraine. Rapeseed production is projected to increase 6 percent to 72.8 million with increases for Canada, the EU, Ukraine, and India.
Global oilseed crush is forecast to increase 17 million tons to 486.0 million in 2017/18 driven by higher demand for protein meals and oils. Global protein meal consumption is projected to expand 4 percent in 2017/18. China’s soybean meal equivalent consumption is expected to grow at 5 percent, similar to last year but below the prior 5-year average. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected at 189.0 million tons, up 5.4 million led by increases for India and China. Soy oil production gains are expected for China and palm oil production gains for Indonesia and Malaysia.
Global soybean exports are projected at 149.6 million tons, up 5.0 million from 2016/17. Imports are expected to grow for China, Egypt, Vietnam, and the EU. Lower global production has led to a 1.3-millionton decrease in soybean stocks, particularly in Brazil and Argentina where stocks are expected to decline by 2.6 million tons combined. Partially offsetting are higher stocks in the United States and Canada.
Source : USDA WASDE