WASDE: Total Red Meat & Poultry Production for 2018 Is Lowered While Pork Production Raised

Feb 08, 2019

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LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total red meat and poultry production for 2018 is lowered from December as beef and broiler production more than offsets slightly higher pork production. Beef production is reduced on lower cattle slaughter and lighter carcass weights through late December. Pork production is raised as heavier carcass weights through late December more than offset lower-than-expected fourth-quarter hog slaughter. Broiler production is lowered while turkey production is unchanged. Egg production is increased slightly for 2018.
 
For 2019, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from December on lower expected beef, pork, and broiler production. The 2019 beef production forecast is reduced on lower projected slaughter as smaller anticipated placements in late 2018 and early 2019 are expected to result in lower fed cattle marketings and slaughter in the first half of the year. The pork production forecast for 2019 is lowered from December on lower expected hog slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights in the first half of the year. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated the September-November pig crop was 2 percent above 2017 and the report
also indicated producers expect to expand farrowings about 2 percent in the first half of 2019. Forecast broiler production is lowered for 2019 on slower expected production growth in the second half of the year. The turkey production forecast is raised slightly.
 
For 2018 and 2019, beef import and export forecasts are lowered from December on trade data to date. Pork export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are reduced on the lowered forecast of production and slower expected pork shipments to key trading partners. The 2018 and 2019 broiler and turkey export forecasts are raised on recent trade data and expectations of firm export demand carrying into next year.
 
Livestock, poultry and egg prices for 2018 are adjusted to reflect December price data. Fedcattle prices for the first quarter of 2019 are raised on current prices. Hog prices are unchanged from December. For 2019, first-half broiler, turkey, and egg price forecasts are raised on prices to date.
 
Milk production for 2018 is lowered on available data through December. The milk production forecast for 2019 is reduced on lower expected first-half dairy cow numbers and continued slow growth in milk per cow. The 2018 and 2019 fat basis import forecasts are reduced from December on recent trade data and lower expected cheese and butterfat imports. The fat basis exports are unchanged for 2018 but the forecast is raised for 2019 primarily on strong expected demand for butter and butterfat products. On a skim-solids basis, the 2018 imports are raised on current trade data while the 2019 import forecast is unchanged. Skim-solids basis exports for
2018 are lowered, but the 2019 export forecast is raised from December on anticipated strong demand for nonfat dry milk (NDM).
 
Dairy product prices for 2018 are adjusted to reflect available December price data. For 2019, the cheese price forecast is lowered while butter, NDM, and whey price forecasts are raised from December. The Class III price for 2019 is unchanged from December while the Class IV price is raised on higher butter and NDM prices. The 2019 all milk price forecast is raised to $16.90 to $17.60 per cwt.