USDA Projects Record Soybean Crop for U.S. and Indiana

By Colleen Settle

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released earlier this afternoon by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects record soybean crops for the U.S. and in the Hoosier state at 4.58 billion and 346.8 million bushels, respectively.

USDA’s October report reduced Indiana’s corn and soybean average yields by eight and three bushels per acre to 202 and 60 bushels per acre, respectively, since the last report.

“The report also reduced corn ending stocks and kept soybeans stocks unchanged from September. This is a positive step as the market was concerned about further increases to ending stocks,” explained Dr. Todd Davis, INFB chief economist. “However, there is still a large amount of inventory looming over farmers’ heads.”

According to Dr. Davis, corn stocks are projected to increase nationally by 640 million bushels from the 2022 crop. If realized, the 2024 corn ending stocks would be the largest since the 2019 marketing year relative to demand. The larger corn inventory will limit price potential. Similarly, USDA projects the soybean ending stock-to-use ratio at 12.5%, which is also the largest relative soybean inventory to demand since 2019.

“This large relative inventory will be a headwind for higher soybean prices without an increase in domestic demand or the threat of reduced production from South America,” noted Dr. Davis. “There could be some opportunities if any demand heats up before the holiday season as well as the impact of South American weather.”