Another Challenging Year for Farmers in 2026-27: FCC

Grain, oilseed and pulse prices are expected to remain under pressure into the 2026–27 crop year as global supplies stay abundant and trade uncertainty continues to cloud market prospects, says Farm Credit Canada (FCC). 

After several years of declining prices, farmers are facing more challenges ahead, FCC said in its 2026 outlook on Thursday. Strong global production, aided by favourable growing conditions in many exporting countries, has kept supplies ample across most commodities. Canada mirrored that trend in 2025, producing a record 107 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds, adding further weight to prices. 

Forecasts suggest commodity values in the 2026–27 crop year will remain well below five-year averages for nearly all major crops. Canola, wheat, corn, soybeans, pulses and barley are all expected to see limited upside as high production continues to translate into rising carryover stocks. 

Canadian ending stocks for most principal field crops are projected to climb sharply in 2025–26, reaching levels not seen since the bumper crop year of 2013–14. While demand remains solid for some commodities — particularly wheat — the large increase in carryover is expected to cap price rallies. 

Pulses face some of the most significant challenges. Pea and lentil ending stocks are forecast to reach record highs following a 30–40% jump in production, combined with ongoing trade barriers. Although China’s removal of its 100% tariff on peas is viewed as a positive step, restricted access to India remains a major concern.  

Canola prices have also been pressured by rising stocks and reduced access to the Chinese market earlier in the season. However, the recent Canada-China trade agreement could provide some relief.  

Globally, markets continue to be influenced heavily by US supply conditions. Record corn and soybean production south of the border has kept world stocks comfortable. While corn exports have remained strong, US soybean exports continue to lag — a situation that could further weigh on oilseed prices. 

With prices restrained, attention is increasingly turning to the cost side of the farm balance sheet. Input costs remain elevated, and profitability projections for many crops sit below break-even levels. As a result, managing costs, monitoring export trends and capturing incremental marketing opportunities will be critical as farmers head into the 2026–27 crop year.