Biggest issue we were kind of watching for today was on the wheat side,” Nelson said. “I think the trade was a bit relieved to see that USDA did not hit the export sale numbers for old crop like they could have and left those unchanged.”
USDA is implying some tightness in wheat supply for the U.S. balance sheet, Nelson said, and he expects those to stay tight.
“The Hard Red Crop- 514 million bushels- the trade expected 591, so in this case, a good 70 million bushel plus change,” Nelson said.
USDA projects farmers are in the midst of planting the country’s largest corn crop on record at 15.265 billion bushels (bb) and a record soybean crop at 4.51 bb with 2023-24 “new-crop” ending stocks for corn projected at 2.22 bb and soybeans pegged at 335 million bushels (mb).
Friday’s U.S. ending new-crop stocks estimates were bearish for corn and soybeans, but bullish for wheat. Hultman sees the world ending stocks estimates from USDA as slightly bearish for corn, soybeans and wheat.
When talking about the Wheat Numbers Nelson said it seems the trade was a bit relieved that USDA didn’t hit the export sales numbers for old crop numbers like they could have “They could have left those unchanged. But the new crop numbers certainly with the small unexpected production which was posted 1.659, This was quite a bit lower than the trade estimate here and certainly with a smaller stock number 556, they are right now implying some some tightness of supply for the US balance sheet at least.”
WHEAT
USDA projects domestic 2023-2024, or new-crop, wheat production at 1.659 bb with an average yield set at 44.7 bushels per acre.
New-crop ending stocks are expected to land at 556 mb. Food, seed and residual use for new crop are pegged at 1.112 bb, with exports at 725 mb. U.S. farm gate prices were pegged at $8.00.
USDA estimates U.S. wheat for 2022-2023, or old crop, ending stocks at 598 mb. Old-crop wheat production is estimated at 1.650 bb. U.S. farm gate old-crop prices were pegged at $8.85.
CORN
For the 2023-24 new crop corn, USDA came in with its initial production forecast at a record 15.265 bb – if realized that would top 2016’s record production. USDA projects farmers will plant 92 million acres with a record yield of 181.5 bushels per acre.
SOYBEANS
USDA said farmers will produce 4.51 bb of soybeans in the new-crop marketing year, based on an acreage estimate of 87.5 million and yield estimate of 52 bushels per acre.
For the 2023-24 marketing year, USDA sees ending stocks growing to 335 mb. The first forecast for new-crop crush demand is 2.31 bb; exports, 1.975 bb; seed, 101 mb, and residual, 25 mb.
LIVESTOCK
Friday’s WASDE Report was rather favorable to the cattle and beef markets again this month. Beef production for 2023 was raised by 146 million pounds as both fed cattle and non-feed cattle slaughter speeds have been more aggressive than originally assumed. This isn’t expected to hinder quarterly steer prices, however.
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