By Ryan Hanrahan
Progressive Farmer Staff reported Thursday that “going against analysts’ pre-report estimates, USDA on Thursday raised corn production slightly as the yield was bumped up to a record level. Corn production was pegged at 15.186 billion bushels, up 39 million bushels from August. The yield was raised 0.5 bushels per acre to a record 183.6 bpa.”
In addition to a new national corn yield record estimate, Reuters’ Karen Braun reported on the social media platform X that “many top producing states are seen setting a new record yield.” That includes Iowa (212 bpa), Illinois (222 bpa), Indiana (210 bpa), Mississippi (190), Wisconsin (182 bpa) and Michigan (182 bpa). The estimates for Illinois and Wisconsin are down slightly from the August WASDE, but are still record-setting estimates.
Corn Estimates
Farm Progress’s Ben Potter and Bruce Blythe reported that “USDA’s corn outlook showed a modest production increase from 15.157 billion bushels in August up to 15.186 billion bushels. Analysts were expecting the agency to move that number in the opposite direction after offering an average trade guess of 15.076 billion bushels. USDA also unexpectedly raised its estimates for per-acre yields to 183.6 bushels per acre.”
“USDA reduced its outlook for ending 2024/25 corn stockpiles to 2.057 billion bushels from 2.073 billion bushels in August, but analysts on average expected a downward revision closer to 2.02 billion bushels,” Potter and Blythe reported. “Estimated ending stocks are up more than 13% from 2023/24 and would be the highest in six years. The season-average price for farmers faded another 10 cents lower, to $4.10 per bushel.”
Soybean Estimates
Potter and Blythe reported that “USDA slightly reduced its estimates for 2024 U.S. soybean production to 4.586 billion bushels while holding per-acre yields steady at 53.2 bpa. Analysts were not expecting to see production changes from August’s volume of 4.589 billion bushels.”
“The agency held steady its soybean crush and export expectations steady, meantime, with ending stocks sinking 10 million bushels lower to 550 million bushels this month,” Potter and Blythe reported. “The season-average farm price remained unchanged, at $10.80 per bushel.”
How Close are These Estimates to Final Production and Yields?
Braun wrote in a commentary Friday morning that “the grain market moved one step closer to settling the size of the U.S. corn and soybean crops on Thursday with fresh projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. But the question now is whether the final harvest volumes could be bigger or smaller in a way that could materially change the current fundamental landscape, where supplies are very ample.”
“Final U.S. corn yield has been higher than USDA’s September projection in 12 of the last 20 years. But only five of those 12 years featured stronger corn yields in September than what USDA had slated in July,” Braun wrote. “In other words, it is more likely for final yield to be larger than in September when the September number is already somewhat light, and that is definitely not the situation this year.”
“All those same ideas hold for soybeans,” Braun said. “Final soy yield was higher than in September in 13 of the last 20 years, but only four of those 13 times occurred when the September yield was higher than in July.”
“In recent years when final corn and soybean yields were lower than in September, the average reduction was about 2% for both crops,” Braun wrote. “If final corn yield was 2% lower than in September, that would still result in a record 179.9 bpa but take about 300 million bushels off production. … If soybean yield ends up decreasing by 2%, production falls by 92 million bushels.“
Source : illinois.edu