The USDA is projecting a rebound in American farm income in 2025, although much of the increase is tied to government payments.
A breakdown of Wednesday's USDA farm income report by the American Farm Bureau Federation shows US net farm income is projected at $179.8 billion this year, up $52 billion, or 40.7%, from the $127.8 billion estimate for 2024. That figure is nearly $300 million lower than USDA’s February projection but still represents one of the strongest rebounds in recent years. In real terms, net farm income is expected to climb $48.8 billion, or 37.2%, while net cash income rises $36.5 billion, or 25.3%.
However, much of the rebound is tied to direct government payments, which are projected to surge to $40.5 billion in 2025, more than triple the $10.9 billion in 2024. USDA trimmed its earlier forecast of $42.4 billion but noted that supplemental and ad-hoc disaster assistance remains the driving factor behind the sharp increase. Officials stressed that this support is designed to offset losses from 2023 and 2024, underscoring the temporary nature of the boost.
The 2025 farm income report also revised last year’s numbers downward, with 2024 net farm income lowered from $139.1 billion to $127.8 billion. The USDA cited weaker crop receipts, declining inventories, and higher production expenses as the main drivers of the $11.3 billion cut, partially offset by small gains in government payments and animal inventories.