IGC Raises World Grains Production Estimate Again

The International Grains Council’s estimate of 2025-26 total world grains production is continuing to move higher. 

The inter-governmental agency’s monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday pegged total global grains output (wheat and coarse grains) at a new record of 2.43 billion tonnes, up 5 million from the October projection and 5% above the previous year’s 2.325 billion. Harvests have so far been “better than expected,” the IGC said, noting that its 2025-26 production estimate has been revised higher in consecutive months since August. 

This year’s expected larger global harvest will more than compensate for the tightest opening stocks in 10 years, the IGC said, boosting the overall 2025-26 grain supply by 3%, to an all-time high of roughly 3.02 billion. On the demand side, increases for food, feed and industrial uses are projected to push total 2025-26 consumption to a record 2.4 billion tonnes, a 2% increase on the year. 

At an estimated 619 million tonnes, total global grains ending stocks of grains are up 1 million from October and 5% above the previous year, marking the first year-over-year increase in season-ending inventories since 2021-22, the IGC said. 

After falling last year, 2025-26 world total grains trade is forecast to grow again, up 4% from last year to 442 million tonnes. 

A large share of this month’s overall increase in total grains production comes from a higher world wheat projection, up 3 million tonnes from September to 830 million and well above 799 million a year earlier. At an estimated 35.1 million tonnes, wheat output for Australia was revised up from 33.8 million last month and 34.1 million in 2024-25, while the Argentina crop was raised to 23.5 million, compared to 22.2 million in October and just 18.5 million last year.