US All Wheat Output Down Slightly from Last Month; Durum Higher

The USDA trimmed its 2024 US all wheat production forecast slightly from last month, although the durum crop has been revised higher. 

In its small grains summary released Monday, the USDA pegged this year’s all wheat output at 1.971 billion bu, down modestly from the September estimate of 1.981 billion but still 9% above a year earlier. 

Durum production was estimated at 80.051 million bu, up from 76.868 million last month and 36% above a year earlier. On the other hand, winter wheat output was reduced to 1.348 billion from 1.36 billion in September – still up 9% on the year – while the other spring wheat crop was dropped to 542.32 million bu from 543.81 million last month, but 8% higher on the year. 

The all wheat production estimate came in a bit below the average pre-report trade estimate of 1.983 billion. 

Durum harvested totaled 2.04 million acres this year up 28%, while the average yield, at 39.3 bu, was 2.5 bu higher compared to 2023. The North Dakota yield was a record high in 2024 at 47 bu/acre, up 10 bu from last year. 

For other spring wheat, US harvested area totaled 10.3 million acres, down 5% from 2023. However, the average yield was a record high, estimated at 52.5 bu/acre, up 6.5 bu from last year. Minnesota and North Dakota yields were both record highs at 68.5 and 59 bu/acre, respectively, versus 62 and 48.5 bu last year. 

In terms of the winter wheat crop, Hard Red production came in at 770 million bu, down 6 million from the September estimate but 29% higher than 2023, while Soft Red Winter, at 342 million, was steady from last month and down 23% on the year.