U.S. Tariffs on Brazil: Potential Implications for Agricultural Trade and Consumers

By Joana Colussi and Gary Schnitkey et.al

The 50 percent tariffs imposed by President Trump on Brazilian imports—effective August 6—are expected to bring some implications for agricultural trade between the two countries. While the measure was softened by hundreds of exemptions announced on July 31^st, including for several of Brazil’s key agricultural exports to the United States, the policy still affects a wide range of goods and is likely to shift commercial dynamics across multiple sectors. This article examines the scope of the tariffs, with a focus on the agricultural products impacted and the potential consequences for producers, exporters, and consumers in both countries.

The Role of the U.S. in Brazilian Agribusiness

Exports account for roughly a fifth of Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP), with agricultural products playing a particularly important role—especially soybeans, meat, coffee, sugar, cotton, fruits, fibers, and tobacco. In 2024, Brazilian agricultural exports totaled US$164 billion, with China as the main buyer, accounting for 30% of that total export value, followed by the European Union with 14%, and the United States with 7%, according to the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) of Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, and Trade (see Figure 1).

Before the new tariffs were even announced by the Trump Administration, Brazil had already started deepening its engagement and trade partnerships with the BRICS nations – a group of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. In the last 15 years, China became Brazil’s largest agricultural trading partner. China is currently the leading importer of several major Brazilian agricultural and forestry products, accounting for 73% of Brazil’s soybean exports, 49% of cellulose (pulp), 46% of beef, 33% of cotton, 29% of sugar, 19% of pork, and 11% of poultry in 2024 (see farmdoc daily, May 7, 2025).