U.S. Swine Outlook: Margins, Risk and the Need for Operational Discipline

Sep 08, 2025

As of mid-year 2025, the U.S. swine industry is enjoying a cautiously optimistic period, supported by stronger margins, easing feed costs and steady domestic demand. However, lingering headwinds — particularly finishing space shortages, regulatory burdens and high construction costs — require producers to take a strategic and financially disciplined approach to sustain profitability and long-term stability.

Production and Feed Cost Relief
U.S. pork production is expected to remain steady in 2025. While growth in the sow herd has slowed, production per sow continues to increase, driven by improved genetics, better herd health and more precise nutritional strategies.

A key positive this year is the decline in feed costs. Corn has dropped below $4 per bushel, with cash prices as low as $3.50, while soybean meal is trading around $260 to $270 per ton. This has significantly reduced input costs for farrow-to-finish operations, where feed typically accounts for 60% to 70% of total production expenses.

These favorable feed prices are enabling many producers to achieve profits that exceed their 12-month margin targets, with average margins currently around $30 per head — providing much-needed relief after two consecutive years of financial stress.

Managing Risk and Locking in Margins
With favorable conditions in place, now is the time for producers to lock in profits and mitigate downside risk. Tools such as Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) insurance, lean hog futures and put options or option spreads can help producers secure profitable margins against price swings or feed cost spikes.

But this profitability window should be viewed as a time for strategic reinvestment in your operation, not complacency.

Click here to see more...
Subscribe to our Newsletters

Trending Video