U.S. Corn Growers Face Rising Insurance Risks Ahead

New Study Warns of Increased Corn Crop Claims Due To Changing Climate Conditions

U.S. corn growers and their insurers are facing a challenging future as climate change threatens to increase risks. According to a recent study, insurance claims for corn crops could rise 22 percent by 2030 and nearly 29 percent by 2050.

The study, published in the Journal of Data Science, Statistics, and Visualisation, highlights how worsening weather will raise economic risks. “Crop insurance has increased 500 percent since the early 2000s, and our simulations show that insurance costs will likely double again by 2050,” said Sam Pottinger, senior researcher at UC Berkeley.

Using a new AI-based tool, researchers modeled growing conditions through 2050. If climate trends continue, both the frequency and severity of claims will increase, with average covered claim portions rising up to 19 percent by midcentury.

Federal crop insurance, managed by the USDA, plays a key role in supporting farmers financially. However, higher claim rates could create new challenges for both growers and insurers alike.

Lawson Conner, assistant professor at the University of Arkansas, added, “For example, we found that insurance companies could see the average covered portion of a claim increase up to 19 percent by 2050.”

The researchers propose solutions like updating farm bill policies to encourage climate-smart practices such as crop rotation and cover cropping. They also suggest using the USDA’s 508(h) mechanism to design better insurance products to cope with future climate threats.

Timothy Bowles, another co-author, stated, “We are already seeing more intense droughts, longer heat waves, and more catastrophic floods.” New policies could help mitigate these growing risks for the agricultural community.

Without strong action, the economic security of U.S. corn farmers could be severely compromised by 2050.