U.S.–China Soybean Deal: Comparing Past Export Levels and Global Market Impacts

By Joana Colussi and Michael Langemeier

The trade deal between the United States and China, announced in November, ends the suspension of soybean imports. It includes a commitment for China to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. The agreement follows six months of near-zero U.S. soybean exports to China amid retaliatory trade measures. But how does the current deal compare to previous U.S. export levels to China? And how might this impact the global soybean market in the years to come? This article compares new purchase commitments with historical U.S. export volumes and examines the implications of the trade war for global soybean trade patterns, with a focus on the United States, Brazil, and Argentina – the world’s leading soybean producers and exporters.

Trade Deal Brings Relief but Limited Volume Recovery

Until May of this year, before the trade war escalated, the United States had sold nearly 6 million metric tons of soybeans to China, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). If China fulfills the reported 12-million-ton purchase commitment in the last two months of the year, U.S. soybean exports to the Chinese market in 2025 would total around 18 million metric tons – 33% lower than in 2024, when exports to China reached 26.8 million metric tons (see Figure 1).

Although the deal brought relief to U.S. producers at the end of the harvest season, total U.S. soybean exports to China this year are expected to be the lowest since 2018, when the trade war between the two countries began. That year, the United States exported only 8 million metric tons to China. In recent years, after the trade deal in 2020, China has purchased roughly half of all U.S. soybean exports, compared to about 60% before the trade tensions began in 2018 (Colussi & Langemeier, 2025a). If China purchases at least 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028, that volume would still be 14% lower than the five-year average of 29 million tons of soybean shipments to China from 2020 to 2024. The ten-year average was 27 million tons.