Texas Drought, Shifting Markets Shape 2026 Crop Outlook

By Karn Dhingra

Texas row crop producers are heading into planting season amid early weather uncertainty, shifting price relationships in major commodities, and ongoing economic pressure from high input costs, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service economists.

While timely rains supported strong cotton yields in 2025, the upcoming season is beginning under La Niña conditions that have kept much of Texas warm and dry since the fall. The pattern is expected to fade by March, but dryness could persist into key planting periods across the state’s staggered cotton calendar, said John Robinson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension cotton economist in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics.

Robinson said that contrasts sharply with last year’s wetter-than-normal conditions and raises the likelihood of lower production and more volatile pricing through the spring and early summer.

La Niña shifts cotton outlook with early drought risk

Even if weather-driven rallies appear, Robinson said they rarely hold through harvest, leaving growers exposed to timing risk in a market that exports 85%-90% of U.S. cotton and responds quickly to global demand signals.

The state’s cotton sector also continues to feel a cost squeeze, with input costs outpacing gains in market prices and tightening margins across Texas row-crop operations.