China Turning to Brazil Soybeans After Meeting US Purchase Pledge

By Ryan Hanrahan

Bloomberg’s Hallie Gu reported that “China, the world’s largest soybean importer, has ramped up orders for Brazilian cargoes of the oilseed after meeting an initial shipment volume from the US as part of a trade truce with Washington.”

“In the past week, importers have booked at least 25 cargoes of the beans for loading mainly in March and April, driven by margins, according to traders with knowledge of the deals,” Gu reported. “At the same time, state-owned companies have appeared to refrain from taking US cargoes, said the people, who declined to be named as they were not authorized to talk to the media.”

“Soybeans emerged as a key point of contention in US-China trade relations, with Beijing initially shunning American cargoes as their ties soured, before agreeing to take shipments as part of a wider rapprochement. China has purchased about 12 million tons of US soybeans in the last three months, meeting a commitment outlined by the Trump administration in November,” Gu reported. “‘It makes complete sense to step up purchases of Brazilian soybeans after meeting the US pledge,’ said Meng Zhangyu, an analyst at Wuchan Zhongda Futures Co. ‘Brazilian supplies are much cheaper.'”

“US soybeans delivered to China on a cost-and-freight basis are at steep premium over comparable Brazilian beans for February, according to the traders. That means crushing them would incur heavy losses, they said,” Gu reported. “Over the longer term, the US said China has committed to buying at least 25 million tons of US soybeans annually through 2028, and the nation may come back for more American cargoes later this year. ‘As long as the agreed trade-deal framework reached between China and the US gets implemented smoothly, China should be able to carry out the agreement and continue to buy US soybeans,’ said Hanver Li, chief analyst at Shanghai JC Intelligence Co., a China-based commodity consultancy.”

Brazil Soybeans Remain Cheaper than US

Reuters’ Naveen Thukral, Ella Cao and Ana Mano reported that “on November 18, Brazilian soybeans for shipment in December to China were priced at $507.90 per metric ton, below $516.90 for U.S. Gulf supplies and $510.50 for U.S. Pacific Northwest origin, on a cost-and-freight basis, excluding tariffs. At those levels, China would have paid roughly $31 million to $108 million more for 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans than for Brazilian cargoes.”

“Traders do not expect further U.S. bookings, citing higher prices and anticipated bumper crops in major producers Brazil and Argentina,” Thukral, Cao and Mano reported. “‘Our large crop makes our product cheaper than the U.S. one, and this tends to last until the arrival of the new U.S. soy from September,’ said Adelson Gasparin, a grain broker in southern Brazil, who expects China to keep up import levels.”