Soybean Yield Up but Production, Ending Stocks Down

The USDA has tightened its 2025-26 US soybean supply-demand outlook, regardless of a higher yield estimate. 

In its monthly supply-demand update Tuesday, the USDA put 2025-26 American soybean ending stocks at 290 million bu, down 20 million from 310 million July and below the downwardly revised 2024-25 ending stocks level of 330 million.  

The first survey-based 2025 US soybean yield estimate came in at 53.6 bu/acre, up 1.1 bu from July and above 50.7 bu last year. However, projected 2025 US soybean harvested area fell a massive 2.4 million acres from last month to 80.1 million – way down from 86.1 million a year earlier - cutting production by 43 million bu to 4.292 billion. At 80.9 million acres, soybean planted area was lowered from 83.4 million in July and 87.1 million in 2024. 

Soybean beginning stocks for 2025-26 were lowered by 20 million bu on stronger crush and export demand in 2024-25, tightening supplies further.  

On the demand side, soybean exports for 2025-26 were reduced 40 million bu to 1.705 billion bu (versus 1.875 billion in 2024-25) due to sluggish sales, while crush remained steady at 2.54 billion bu, up from 2.43 billion a year earlier. 

Going into today’s report, analysts were expecting the 2025 soybean production estimate to increase by almost 40 million from July, while ending stocks were seen rising to just over 350 million. Soybean futures were trading 16-17 cents/bu higher this afternoon. 

Global soybean production fell by 1.3 million tonnes to 426.39 million in today’s report, with the U.S. and Serbia leading the decline. Global soybean exports were cut slightly, with reductions for the US offset by higher shipments from Argentina and Uruguay. Import forecasts were trimmed for the EU, Iran, and Vietnam.  

Global soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 are down 1.2 million tonnes from July to 124.9 million – and below 125.19 million in 2024-25 - reflecting lower inventories in the US, Argentina, EU, Iran, and Vietnam. 

China’s expected 2025-26 soybean imports, at 112 million tonnes, were steady from July and up from 106.5 million a year earlier. 

At $10.10/bu, the average expected new-crop soybean price is unchanged from last month, and up a dime from 2024-25.